One China Conundrum

Recently, Donald Trump accepted call from Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen. It created a lot furor in the diplomatic arena. In this article I would attempt to tell you what is the issue and its repercussion about the move.

Image credit- google images

Timeline to understand background

  • 1912- KMT establish a govt in China
  • 1921- Chinese communist party was formed
  • 1937-1949- Battle between KMT+CCP and Japan and then KMT vs CCP, here CCP won and KMT fled to Taiwan
  • 1949- KMT forms government for whole China in Taiwan and was recognised internationally. This resulted in UN security council seat given to KMT.
  • Till 1960s the seat for UN security council was possessed by KMT, this changed in 1971 when UN decided the security council seat be given to mainland china aka CCP
  • 1979 – US passed Taiwan relation act, obliging it to defend Taiwan militarily if attacked, this also paved way for USA acceptance to one china policy
  • 1992 – Partial consensus over the one china policy but no proper definition for one China was given

The timeline has instances of threatening by mainland China. Numerous missile testing at Taiwan coast indicate this. This is fueled by outlook of China which consider Taiwan as break away province. It has threatened of dire consequences and even break off diplomatic relation with any country, if it officially indulge with Taiwan. This can be seen when diplomatic channels were break off  with island nations of Latin American and Pacific countries. The result is that the Taiwan diplomatic relations to the world is limited to unofficial aspect only and face impediments in entry the multi lateral organisation. This was seen as world Civil Aviation Organisation entry.

Trump has asked for a review of one China policy for better deals especially in trade. This is a sure departure from the past.  This was eventually refuted by china as a petty move on part of Taiwan as well as Trump.

Outcomes: 

Outcome of the move is directly strained relation between the two countries. China, as mentioned, in the past is quite vocal about relations with Taiwan. A full drawn war between the two nation can be drawn if this process continues. But will it?

The answer is no.

The effect of this is retreat of USA from China towards Taiwan. It is not a business friendly move considering China being a 1.4 billion market and Taiwan being 23 million population. Moreover there is a slight hint of economic first agenda of Trump so this probably is a public stunt.

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